Week 4 Drop: The Locks, The Landmines & The Calls The Guys Can't Settle

October 4, 2026 · Drop Eight

Week 4 is here and the lineup clock is already running. Thursday night is in the books, London kicks off at 9:30 AM ET, and Falcons-Saints closes the week Monday night.

We went through what the guys are saying position by position, pulled out where they agree, where they split, and who they take when it's one or the other, and checked every roster against the real thing. Here's where the room landed.

Friendly Reminder: Read the Room (and Your Roster)

No two leagues play the same. Your scoring, your roster size and how deep your bench runs all change the math, so treat this as a place to start, not a rulebook.

• Deep leagues: A guy on the sit list can still be the best option you've got. Play him and move on.
• Shallow leagues: Check your bench and the wire before you settle. There's usually something better sitting there than you think.

Bottom line: Start your strongest lineup, back your own read, quit second-guessing, and get those lineups locked.

Before you set your lineup

• London: Terry McLaurin (hamstring) and Jayden Daniels (elbow) are inactive for Washington, so Marcus Mariota starts. The Colts are without Keenan Allen (groin), and Alec Pierce is on injured reserve.
• Justin Jefferson (ankle) is out for the Vikings.
• Jadarian Price (chest) is out for Seattle, and Zach Charbonnet isn't eligible to play until Week 5.
• Breece Hall (quad), Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor are out for the Jets. Kenyon Sadiq (back) is questionable, but his coach sounded confident he'll play.
• Tyson Bagent is expected to start at quarterback for the Bears, with Case Keenum backing him up.
• Baker Mayfield (thumb) is out, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels starts for Tampa Bay. Bucky Irving is off the injury report.
• Mike Evans (ribs) is a game-time decision and says he'll try to play through it. Ladd McConkey (foot) is questionable. Jalen Coker (quad) is questionable and reported unlikely to play.
• Puka Nacua is back and isn't expected to be limited. Nico Collins is back too.
• DeVonta Smith is out for the Eagles.

1. London Kicks First (9:30 AM ET)

Colts-Commanders is the early window, so these lock before everything else.

• Marcus Mariota (Commanders): A top-12 streamer for the guys. He leads qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected and average depth of throw, he brings a rushing floor, and the Colts are giving up the fifth-highest EPA per dropback. They'd rather stream him than start Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Drake Maye, Bo Nix or C.J. Stroud.
• Jonathan Taylor (Colts): S-tier and a top-5 back this week. Washington's run defense is badly weakened with linebacker Leo Chenal out for the season.
• Josh Downs (Colts): Used as a true WR1 in motion with a 33% target rate per route. With Alec Pierce sidelined by a heel injury, the guys have him locked in as a top-20 PPR wideout. Their order in this game: Downs, then Terry McLaurin, then Stefon Diggs (Commanders), then Keenan Allen (Colts).
• Terry McLaurin (Commanders): Inactive. Before the hamstring, the guys had him as a must-start off a 9-target, 6-catch, 77-yard, one-touchdown day with Mariota, against a Colts defense giving up league-worst passing numbers.
• Tyler Warren (Colts): A heavily used short-area target against a Washington defense that keeps giving up production to tight ends.

2. The Starts The Guys Agree On

Quarterbacks

• Brock Purdy (49ers): Playing at an MVP level: first in offensive efficiency, first-read EPA per dropback and yards per attempt since late last season. The guys say stay in the flames and start him as a top-7 quarterback instead of overthinking Denver.
• Jared Goff (Lions): Detroit has scored 30-plus in every game. He gets a Carolina secondary that just put both starting boundary corners on injured reserve, in a game with a slate-high 51.5 projected total.
• Tyler Shough (Saints): Leads the NFL in pass attempts and has 29-plus fantasy points in two of his three starts. Consensus high-end QB1 and a top-3 play, against an Atlanta defense he hung 23.8 fantasy points on the last time they met.
• Jacoby Brissett (Cardinals): A streamer the guys like against an exploitable Giants secondary. When he drops back 40-plus times, the production shows up regardless of game script.
• Geno Smith (Jets): Coming off a top-3 finish in Week 3 and drawing a vulnerable Bears secondary.
• Matthew Stafford (Rams): A solid top-12 play with Puka Nacua back in the lineup, against an Eagles defense missing key pieces in the secondary.
• The no-thought QB1s: Josh Allen (Bills), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Joe Burrow (Bengals), Jalen Hurts (Eagles), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Bryce Young (Panthers) and Jordan Love (Packers) all sit inside the consensus top 12 on talent, implied team totals and projectable volume.

Running Backs

• Braelon Allen (Jets): The No. 1 waiver add of the week with Breece Hall week-to-week (quad). He's in line for 15-plus touches with the early-down and goal-line work, against a Bears defense Saquon Barkley exploited last week.
• Derrick Henry (Ravens): S-tier in a revenge game against Tennessee, and Baltimore is projected for the highest team total on the slate.
• Kyren Williams (Rams): Sixth in routes run, which is what cements the PPR floor. The guys have him as an RB12 start.
• D'Andre Swift (Bears): RB7 overall in PPR. He owns the goal line in Chicago, with 10 carries inside the 10-yard line.
• Chase Brown (Bengals): Handles 72%-plus of Cincinnati's backfield carries and ranks seventh in routes among running backs. A premier RB2 who's due for positive touchdown regression.
• Chuba Hubbard (Panthers): A game-script-proof bellcow with roughly RB9 usage. He stays on the field even when Carolina is trailing.
• Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars): Clear lead-back touch share with a growing goal-line role. Locked-in top-20 play.

Wide Receivers

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks): WR1 overall on the week, averaging 22-plus PPR points over his last four healthy starts.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions): WR2 overall, commanding a 31% target share.
• Chris Olave (Saints): Producing as the overall WR1 with Shough and averaging 132 air yards per game. Atlanta is missing corner A.J. Terrell.
• Parker Washington (Jaguars): Fourth in the NFL in air-yard share and fifth in target share. He's Trevor Lawrence's No. 1 in a game with a 51.5 projected total.
• Jameson Williams (Lions): The guys' boom pick against a Carolina defense missing both starting perimeter corners. He also shows up in the debates below.
• Michael Wilson (Cardinals): A 95.2% route participation rate, second in the NFL, and a 25.6% target share as Brissett's preferred perimeter target.
• Brycen Tremayne (Panthers): The premier waiver fill-in. He led Panthers receivers in snaps and targets after Jalen Coker's quad injury.
• Chris Bell (Dolphins): Snap share jumped to 71% in Week 3 with 2.48 yards per route run and seven targets. First-round talent profile, and the guys see big rest-of-season upside.

Tight Ends

• Darren Waller (Panthers): Detroit has been torched by tight ends: 28.5 points per game and six touchdowns to six different tight ends in three games. Waller saw eight targets last week and is Bryce Young's top red-zone weapon with Coker hurt.
• Kenyon Sadiq (Jets): The breakout pick, drawing a 25%-plus target rate per route. He lines up in the slot on 41% of his snaps, basically a wide receiver in a tight end's jersey, with Mason Taylor and Adonai Mitchell out.
• Juwan Johnson (Saints): TE4 overall at 12.9 PPR points per game and tied for the league lead in end-zone targets. Shough is throwing 44 times a game, and Atlanta ranks 26th against tight ends.
• Mark Andrews (Ravens): A 23.7% target share, 2.07 yards per route run and a 25.9% first-read share. The guys have him circled as a positive-regression blowup.
• The weekly locks: Brock Bowers (Raiders), Trey McBride (Cardinals), George Kittle (49ers), Travis Kelce (Chiefs) and Sam LaPorta (Lions).

D/ST

• Vikings D/ST: The guys' No. 1 streamer. Miami is implied for 13.75 points without De'Von Achane, and Brian Flores is going to blitz all day.
• Ravens D/ST: A matchup play against a mistake-prone Tennessee offense.
• Packers D/ST: Jalon Daniels makes his first start behind a badly depleted Tampa Bay offensive line.
• Bills D/ST: Drake Maye and one of the worst points-per-drive offenses in the league.

3. The Sits

Quarterbacks

• Drake Maye (Patriots): The guys aren't being polite about it. He's taking sacks, not scrambling and not creating downfield, in an offense that ranks 31st in points per drive. Several of them say bench him or drop him in one-QB leagues.
• Justin Herbert (Chargers): The offense has stalled under heavy pressure and carries an 18-point implied total on the road in Seattle. He's on the sell-or-drop list, with zero confidence as a starter.
• Kyler Murray (Vikings): Outside the top 15. His completion percentage cratered in Week 3, and without Justin Jefferson the passing ceiling is capped in a low-volume game script.

Running Backs

• Omarion Hampton (Chargers): Landmine and bust are the words the guys are using. His snap share fell to 42% as Keaton Mitchell took the receiving work and Kimani Vidal handled third downs. Seattle leads the NFL in run-stop success rate and hasn't allowed a back over 60 rushing yards in its last eight games.
• Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins): The guys think anyone who bid big on him lost the plot. Miami's team total is under 14, 12 of his 18 carries last week went for three yards or fewer, and Brian Flores' defense gives up almost nothing on the ground.
• Saquon Barkley (Eagles): Yes, really. His route participation is down to about 33%, with three catches for six yards all year. Philadelphia ranks 17th in DVOA under new coordinator Sean Mannion, and Jalen Hurts takes the short-yardage touchdowns.
• Jadarian Price (Seahawks): Out this week, which settles it. The guys were already off him: he runs zone concepts almost exclusively and the Chargers allow just 3.5 yards per carry against zone runs, and Zach Charbonnet's return turns this backfield into an unpredictable three-way committee.
• Bucky Irving (Buccaneers): A glute/hip injury limited him in practice this week. With Jalon Daniels at quarterback, Tampa Bay's point total has dropped to 18, which caps the touchdown upside.

Wide Receivers

• Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars): The guys' most droppable player. He's the sacrificial X in this offense, and his route share fell below 55% with only 15 routes in Week 3.
• Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers): Another landmine. The targets are split four ways in an offense now run by an undrafted rookie.
• Ladd McConkey (Chargers): Banged up with a foot injury and facing Devon Witherspoon in a low-scoring offense.
• Rome Odunze (Bears): A 17.8-yard average depth of target means low-percentage throws, and Case Keenum preferred Luther Burden III and Kalif Raymond underneath.
• Quentin Johnston (Chargers): Struggling badly with drops and losing routes and snaps to Tre' Harris.
• Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals): Also a sacrificial X, running cardio downfield. He's at 0.7 yards per route run with a target share under 7%.
• Makai Lemon (Eagles): The guys call Philadelphia's passing game structurally broken: dead last in screen yards and play-action rate. Bench stash only.

Tight Ends

• Tucker Kraft (Packers): Green Bay's injured offensive line has him staying in to block against Tampa Bay's heavy blitzes, which tanks his route share.
• Colston Loveland (Bears): Receiving lines of 0, 3 and 31 yards. Keenum prioritized Burden and Raymond underneath, and the Jets haven't allowed a tight end over 44 yards all season.
• Kyle Pitts (Falcons): The offense runs through Bijan Robinson and Drake London. The guys have him as unstartable.

D/ST

• Jaguars D/ST: A 51.5-point projected shootout with Cincinnati implied for 27.
• Dolphins D/ST: A secondary that isn't functioning and keeps giving up big fantasy days to opposing passers.
• Bears D/ST: A popular waiver add this week, and the guys are still telling you not to start them.

4. What The Guys Can't Agree On

• C.J. Stroud (Texans): One side calls him a sit or even a drop: a 41.5% completion rate, a 24.4% inaccuracy rate and poor offensive line play. The other side sees a prime bounce-back with Nico Collins returning against a beat-up Dallas secondary missing key corners.
• Brock Purdy (49ers): The top of the room has him unbenchable at QB2 to QB7. A few of the guys drop him to QB8 or QB10 if Mike Evans is ruled out or if Denver's pass rush takes away San Francisco's deep concepts.
• Alvin Kamara (Saints): Some of the guys have him as a waiver or sit candidate, pointing to a lingering injury and Kendre Miller stealing snaps. Others are warming up to 12 to 15 guaranteed touches as New Orleans' primary runner.
• David Montgomery (Texans): The bench case: his efficiency has dropped off and there are whispers he's losing work to Woody Marks. The start case: he played 63% of the snaps as the lead back and could score twice on your bench against Dallas.
• Jameson Williams (Lions): The cautious side sits him because his catch floor is low when Sam LaPorta is active and Detroit leans on the run. The upside side calls this his prime boom spot against Carolina's injured corners.
• Kalif Raymond (Bears): The believers point to 2.7 yards per route run as Ben Johnson's slot safety valve. The skeptics see a 32-year-old in a four-man split and expect regression.
• Dalton Schultz (Texans): Start case: a revenge game against a Dallas defense that's given up three tight end touchdowns in three weeks, plus a 24.5 team total. Sit-or-drop case: Nico Collins is back and Schultz's route share dipped.
• Dalton Kincaid (Bills): Some of the guys expect the bounce-back based on route participation. Others are cautious because New England has been shutting tight ends down.
• Texans D/ST: The pass rush, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, is the reason to start them. Injuries to linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To'oTo'o are the liability against Dallas's passing attack.
• Cowboys D/ST: Secondary injuries make the floor low, but the pass rush brings turnover potential against Houston's struggling offensive line.

5. The Tiebreakers

When it's one or the other, here's who the guys take.

• Matthew Stafford over Marcus Mariota and Jayden Daniels (Commanders): Stafford's health and Nacua's return win out over Mariota, and over Daniels, who they expected to be limited.
• Joe Burrow over Brock Purdy: Burrow gets the higher projected game total, 51.5 against Jacksonville.
• Kyren Williams over Saquon Barkley: Kyren's target share against Philadelphia's offensive regression.
• The flex ladder: Braelon Allen, then Bhayshul Tuten, then David Montgomery, then Omarion Hampton and Saquon Barkley. Allen's workload and matchup make him an easy start over all of them.
• Alvin Kamara over Jadarian Price, Tony Pollard (Titans) and the Denver backs.
• Kalif Raymond over Omarion Hampton: In PPR flex spots, the receiver gets the nod over the running back.
• Jameson Williams over Emeka Egbuka and Dontayvion Wicks (Eagles).
• Michael Wilson, then Malik Nabers (Giants), then Jameson Williams.
• Dontayvion Wicks over Emeka Egbuka.
• Dontayvion Wicks and Michael Wilson over Ladd McConkey.
• Kenyon Sadiq over Tucker Kraft and Colston Loveland: And it isn't close for the guys.
• Darren Waller and Kenyon Sadiq over Isaiah Likely (Giants).
• Kenyon Sadiq over Dalton Schultz.
• Chiefs D/ST over Bears D/ST.

London locks first, the bulk of the slate follows at 1 PM ET, and Monday night is still a day out, so nearly all of this is live. Set it, trust it, and go watch some football.

Go get your guy.